In the energy storage market, the installed capacity is increasing while prices continue to decline. This creates a challenge for the market to accurately predict shifts in industry profits. Additionally, there is concern about a potential slowdown in energy storage installed capacity if the growth rate of photovoltaic (PV) installations diminishes next year. However, with the ongoing acceleration of the energy transition, there is optimism for sustained long-term growth in the energy storage industry.

Der heimische Markt ist hinsichtlich der großen Energiespeicherung optimistisch und erwartet im nächsten Jahr ein deutliches Wachstum der installierten Kapazität. Die diesjährigen PV-Installationen haben die Erwartungen übertroffen, der Markt betrachtet den überschüssigen Anteil jedoch als vorzeitige Inanspruchnahme der Kapazitäten für das nächste Jahr aufgrund der hohen Nachfrage. Die National Energy Administration (NEA) veröffentlichte Daten, die einen bemerkenswerten Anstieg der bodengebundenen PV-Installationskapazität in den ersten drei Quartalen dieses Jahres belegen. Auch private PV-Anlagen sowie dezentrale PV-Anlagen für Industrie und Gewerbe verzeichneten ein deutliches Wachstum. Es bestehen jedoch weiterhin Bedenken hinsichtlich der begrenzten Verbrauchskapazität des Netzes.

Predicting next year's PV growth rate accurately proves challenging for the market. Historically, energy storage installed capacity has been assumed to be directly proportional to PV and onshore wind power installed capacity. If the PV growth rate slows down next year, there is apprehension that energy storage capacity may also decelerate. However, the reality contradicts these concerns as the growth rate in installed energy storage capacity far surpasses PV installations.

China's cumulative installed capacity for new energy storage projects exceeded 17.33 GW/35.80 GWh in the first half of this year. The data also revealed that China's new centralized PV installed capacity reached 37 GW in the same period. Between Q3 of 2021 and Q2 of 2023, China achieved a centralized PV installed capacity of 53 GW, accompanied by a corresponding energy storage installed capacity of 8.7 GW. Although the installed capacity in the first half of this year is lower than in previous years, the energy storage installed capacity remains comparable.

Several factors contribute to the positive forecasts for domestic energy storage installations next year. Independent energy storage installations unrelated to wind power are emerging as the primary driver of installed capacity. Hunan and Shandong played pivotal roles in driving the highest installations during the first half of 2023. The introduction of policies in Hunan province significantly fueled the rapid surge in energy storage installed capacity. Additionally, an increasing number of provinces now mandate energy storage as a requirement for new energy projects, further driving the growth of allocated energy storage.

Next year, even if the growth rate of PV installed capacity slows down, the optimistic outlook for domestic energy storage remains. The increased allocated proportion of energy storage, along with provinces mandating energy storage and the development of independent storage initiatives, contributes to this positive outlook. As the landscape of energy storage installations continues to evolve, the industry is expected to maintain its robust development. With the ongoing energy transition and the growing importance of energy storage, the market will likely see sustained long-term growth in the coming years.

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