Ukufakwa kwesitoreji samandla okunqwabelanayo emhlabeni jikelele kulindeleke ukuthi kudlule uphawu lwehora le-terawatt ngaphambi kuka-2030, okuqhutshwa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ezikhuthaza ukuguquguquka kwegridi. Ngokwezibikezelo, amabhethri e-lithium-ion azohlinzeka ngobuningi balo mthamo. Ekupheleni konyaka wezi-2030, umthamo wokuqongelela umhlaba wonke kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele ku-1,877 gigawatt-hours (GWh) ngokukhishwa kwamagigawatts (GW) angama-650. Isitoreji sebhethri ye-lithium-ion iyodwa izofinyelela kumahora we-terawatt angu-1.6 (TWh) ngo-2030, okubonisa ukukhula okuphawulekayo uma kuqhathaniswa nezibalo zonyaka odlule.

Embikweni wayo wengxenye yokuqala yalo nyaka, eyanyatheliswa ngoNdasa, i-DNV yayibikezele umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe ongu-508 GW no-1,432 GWh ekupheleni kuka-2030. Nokho, izibalo zangempela zibonise ukweqa okukhulu nakakhulu, ekupheleni -izilinganiso zonyaka manje ku-650 GW kanye ne-1,877 GWh. Lokhu kwanda okukhulu kugqamisa isidingo esikhulayo sezixazululo zokugcinwa kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.

Ngo-2050, ukufakwa kwe-lithium-ion kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele ku-22 TWh, iningi libe yi-PV yesikali esisetshenziswayo esihlanganiswe namabhethri e-lithium-ion. Ukwengeza, kuzoba nengxenye encane yokugcinwa kwebhethri ye-lithium-ion ezimele kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla okuhlala isikhathi eside (i-LDES), okungeza cishe ku-1.4 TWh. Kodwa-ke, umbiko uphakamisa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe be-LDES befa, obufana nesitoreji samandla e-pumped hydro (PHES), mancane amathuba okuba bubone ukukhula okubalulekile, okusele kuzungeze umthamo wamanje we-3 TWh.

Amabhethri e-lithium-ion kulindeleke ukuthi abe nokuqanjwa okusha okubalulekile, ngezindleko zesistimu yokugcina amandla ebhethri esezingeni elisetshenziswayo okulindeleke ukuthi zehle ngaphansi kuka-$200/kWh ngo-2030. Ngo-2050, izindleko zingase zibe phansi cishe cishe ku-$130/kWh. I-DNV iphinde ivume amandla obuchwepheshe be-LDES, ikakhulukazi i-vanadium redox flow battery (VRFBs), ezinhlelweni zokusebenza ezisukela kumahora angu-8 kuya kwangu-24. Lobu buchwepheshe bungase bunikeze izinzuzo zezindleko ngaphezu kwamabhethri e-lithium-ion. Nokho, ukwamukelwa kwalobu buchwepheshe obusha kungase kuncike ekusekelweni kwenqubomgomo kanye nokwehliswa okuqhubekayo kwezindleko.

Yize isidingo sezinhlelo zokusebenza zamandla aphezulu njengokulawula imvamisa kanye nezinsiza ezihambisanayo njengamanje siqhuba isidingo sokulondoloza, umbiko ugqamisa ukuthi njengoba umthamo wokugcina udlula u-0.5% wesamba semithombo yamandla exhunywe kugridi, ukugxilwa kuzodlulela ekusetshenzisweni kwamandla okuphezulu okudinga isikhathi eside isitoreji. Lolu shintsho oluya ezikhathini ezinde seluvele lubonakala ezimakethe ezihamba phambili zokugcina amandla esifunda njenge-California, i-UK, kanye nemakethe yase-Texas' ERCOT, lapho ubude besikhathi bukhuphuke kusukela cishe kwehora elilodwa ukuya emahoreni angu-2 kuya kwangu-4 eminyakeni yakamuva.

Mayelana nokugcinwa kwamandla okuhlala isikhathi eside (i-LDES), icala lokwamukelwa kwayo okusabalele akukacaci, naphezu kwezimemezelo eziningi zephrojekthi e-US nase-China. Ekupheleni kuka-2023, ukufakwa kwe-LDES okuhlanganisiwe kulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzofinyelela ku-1.4 GW naku-8.2 GWh. Kodwa-ke, ukukhula kwesikhathi esizayo kwe-LDES kuzoncika ekhonweni layo lokubonisa isiphakamiso senani layo futhi kunqobe izinselele zobuchwepheshe.

Umkhakha wokugcinwa kwamandla kulindeleke ukuthi uthole ukukhula okungama-34% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2023, nesamba esingu-42 GW kanye nama-99 GWh okuthunyelwa. Lokhu kukhula kubikezelwa ukuthi kuzoqhubeka ngezinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka (CAGR) cishe elingama-27% kuya ku-2030, lidlula isilinganiso sangaphambilini sama-23% CAGR. Ekupheleni kweminyaka eyishumi, ukufakwa kwaminyaka yonke kwe-110 GW kanye nama-372 GWh kulindeleke. Lokhu kwandiswa kuqhutshwa amandla akhulayo kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza ezihlukahlukene eziqhutshwa amandla zokulondoloza.

Sekukonke, izibikezelo zibonisa ukwanda okukhulu kokufakwa kwesitoreji samandla emhlabeni wonke, ikakhulukazi okuqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe bebhethri ye-lithium-ion. Njengoba ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nezinqubomgomo zikahulumeni ziqhubeka nokukhuthaza ukuguquguquka kwegridi, imboni ikulungele ukukhula okukhulu. Ngokuhla kwezindleko zobuchwepheshe bokugcina amandla kanye nesimo semakethe esithuthukayo, ikusasa libukeka lithembisa ukuthuthukiswa nokusatshalaliswa kwezixazululo zesitoreji ezisekela ukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokuzinza kwegridi.

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